Is the Spring Festival out of favor?

A total of eight films will enter the competition for this year’s Spring Festival.As the biggest period of the year, the box office output of The Spring Festival and its contribution to the annual box office have maintained a high level in recent years.”Watergate Bridge of Chojin Lake” as the latest film to be registered, the professional version of Cat’s Eye shows that the number of people who want to see it has exceeded one million, and it is the only film that has exceeded one million “want to see”.”Watergate Bridge of Changjin Lake” is the first choice for 45% of the audience during the Spring Festival, and the proportion of those who want to watch this film is more than 15% of the other four live-action films, especially “Sniper” and “Miracle”.In addition, the sniper, a historical war film, and the Watergate Bridge of Jangjin Lake in the same period of release face greater challenges.And once as a popular comedy film in the Spring Festival, the box office has declined for two years, but it is still a necessary theme for family scenes, this year “The Killer is not too calm” to the only comedy theme film in the Spring Festival;”Four Seas” “comedy + love” elements, to meet the choice of different audiences;In terms of parent-child animation, three animated films competed for the Chinese New Year, with boonie bears and Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf meeting again after a six-year hiatus.However, the popularity of this year’s Spring Festival is not as good as before. As of press release of Ti Media APP, the pre-sale box office of this year’s Spring Festival is 700 million yuan, which is a big difference compared to last year’s 1.46 billion yuan.The top three pre-orders for this year’s Spring Festival are “The Watergate Bridge of Jangjin Lake” (300 million yuan), “Miracle boy” (100 million yuan) and “Four Seas” (100 million yuan).Box office market pattern has now, “on New Year’s day” has a little influence on factors such as the Spring Festival this year file since the file that the long jin lake of water gate bridge, want to see rising rapidly among the head, and the miracle, stupid kid “four seas” “is the killer is not very calm” sniper “competition is intense, the Spring Festival of 2022 whole showed the trend of group competition.Last year, the Spring Festival box office got the whole film market off to a good start.The final box office hit a record high of 7.8 billion yuan, with the average daily box office breaking 1 billion yuan for the first time in the period.Among them, Yuan, Detective Chinatown 3 and Hello, Li Huanying accounted for 80% of the total box office during the Spring Festival, further highlighting the fierce competition for the first time of the year.The 2022 Spring Festival box office pattern has been revealed, showing a super four three animation, two to four fierce competition situation.Liu Zhenfei, an analyst with Maoyan Research Institute, told Ti Media APP that this year’s Spring Festival box office market will continue to show three trends: First, the box office is concentrated in top films.From 2017 to 2019, the top three tickets accounted for 80% of the box office. In 2021, the top two tickets of Detective Chinatown 3 and Hello, Li Huanying accounted for 80% of the box office, and the top three tickets accounted for 90% of the box office.Behind it is stable in the Spring Festival season in recent years the average number of screenings in 1.2, temporary not improved significantly, while the number of films for schedule from 2017, 2018, 5 to 6, to less then 7 department in recent years, more than nine, however, during the Spring Festival gear eighty percent audience can only watch one movie, so watch will choose to concentrate in the head,The box office increment driven by the low-frequency moviegoers will also flow to the head films, and the head box office will further increase its share.Second, the proportion of older audiences and multiple audiences has increased.Combined with the characteristics of family reunion during the Spring Festival, the proportion of people over 30 years old and multiple people watching movies will be significantly increased.For example, during the Spring Festival in 2021, audiences over 30 years old will account for 46.9%, and those over 30 years old will account for 43.6% in 2021.Those with three or more moviegoers accounted for 26 percent of the total, compared with 16 percent for the whole year.Third, the proportion of audience in third – and fourth-tier cities increased.The feature of returning home for the Spring Festival has led to a significant increase in the proportion of visitors from sunken cities during the Spring Festival. In 2021, the proportion of visitors from third-tier and fourth-tier cities was 46.8%.Although some regions advocated “local Chinese New Year” during the Spring Festival last year, the proportion of the audience in third and fourth tier cities decreased slightly during the Spring Festival, but the proportion was still as high as 55.3%, much higher than the overall level of the whole year.Although, due to the trend of “celebrating the Spring Festival in place” and other initiatives, the box office market has been affected to a certain extent, but this only represents the transfer of box office in the third and fourth tier cities, between the south and the north, rather than disappear, and has little relationship with the overall performance of the national market.In addition, some of the affected cities or regions may have restrictions on the operation of cinemas during the Spring Festival.However, the performance of the Spring Festival in 2021 will not affect the performance of the market.Last year’s Spring Festival box office hit a record high of 7.825 billion yuan, while the total number of screenings fell to a certain extent and the attendance limit remained at 75 percent. It also increased the previous record by 1.92 billion yuan.This shows that the sporadic influence is local after all, and the overall performance depends on the overall quality of the film.As long as there are good movies, there will be a high enthusiasm for watching movies, which is also the hard truth of the film market will never change.For cinema films, the Spring Festival has more impact than just seven days.From the box office contribution, the Spring Festival box office in the annual box office market accounted for a gradually higher.According to data, the Spring Festival box office accounted for 6%-7% of the total annual box office in 2016 and 2017, and about 9%-10% in 2018 and 2019.In 2021, that figure is already 17 percent.With 2% of the whole year, the Spring Festival period drives 17% of the box office. The Spring Festival period contributes significantly to the overall output value of the annual box office and continues to improve rapidly.From the time point of view, the traditional big four season (Spring Festival party, summer, National Day and New Year file) in the first season kicks off, the Spring Festival party bear the start to the foundation for the New Year, at the same time, as the first day box office 1 billion season, the lunar New Year stalls high market benefit, can also boost mood to the industry.The three-month summer holiday from June to August has the largest overall output value and is responsible for supporting the annual box office volume.As the beginning of the fourth quarter of the National Day, is the annual cumulative box office accelerator;The lunar New Year season, which starts in late November or early December, marks the end of the year.As a result, the Spring Festival is responsible for raising the box office ceiling of China’s film market.Throughout the whole year, except for the summer holiday in June, the Spring Festival alone dominates the first half of the year among the four seasons. At present, the single-day box office of the market is 1.692 billion (the first day of 2021), the single-week box office is 5.903 billion (the 2019 Spring Festival), and the single-month box office record is 12.269 billion (February 2021).So, this year’s Spring Festival ticket sales are lower than last year’s, does that mean the advantage of Spring Festival is gone?Liu Zhenfei believes that the film market will still be dependent on the schedule.He explained to the Ti media APP that because the box office of the hit period is getting higher and the box office of the non-time period is getting lower and lower, the hit films naturally tend to choose the hot period.At present, the annual average number of audiences has not significantly increased. In recent years, the number of viewers per capita peaked at 3.06 in 2018 and 2.43 last year.Under the influence of the supply side of the market, all parties will naturally tend to the hot season.The demand market develops along with the trend of the supply market, thus forming a cycle in which production capacity and movie-watching become more and more concentrated in the schedule. As the first major schedule of the year, the Spring Festival will still be a competitive place for popular films.From 2017 to 2019, the holiday season accounted for 22% of the annual box office, up from 15%. In 2021, the holiday season accounted for 36%, or one-third of last year’s box office during the 31-day holiday season.Can parent-child movies hold the future of Chinese New Year?In addition to popular theme films and regular comedies, the biggest highlight of this year’s Spring Festival is the increase in the number of animation films.Three animated films will be released this Spring Festival, including two new children’s IPS, Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf and Boonie bears.Three of the eight Spring Festival movies are animated, including boonie bears and Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf, which meet again after a six-year hiatus.After a long period of development, animated films have formed the characteristics of broad types and significant differences in audience structure.In recent years, compared with Pleasant Goat, Boonie bears will be more parent-child in terms of audience composition.Zhang Rongdi, an industry analyst with Lighthouse Research Institute, told Ti Media APP that animation is a natural product for holidays, and parents have a natural demand to take their children to watch movies, while the Spring Festival and winter vacation are overlapping factors, so the Spring Festival is also a competitive season for animated films, up to three films were released this year.So does this mean that other types of films are getting squeezed?Mr Cheung said such problems were unlikely.Because parent-child movies and adult-oriented movies themselves are facing different audiences, the overall proportion of these two different audiences must be larger than that of adult-oriented movies.From the recent two years, more films, especially the head films, are still more inclined to put their works in the major period, especially in the Spring Festival period.So, from these two aspects, although this year’s Spring Festival animation is really very much, but it is not likely to affect the adult film market.Judging from the previous trend, heavy parent-child animations maintain a higher supply due to robust demand and relatively low production cost.On the box office, all types of animation basically around the whole age of normal distribution.For parent-child animated films that are subject to demand and consumption, the buyers are parents, but the real audience is children. Therefore, parent-child animated films often repeat the same movie for many times, which is a reflection of children’s need to socialize, and also makes parent-child animated films have a higher multi-brush rate.However, for films facing the IP aging problem under the orientation of full-age animation, industry analysts believe that it is necessary to better adjust the proportion of “young children” and “parents” in the subsequent works, so as to establish a good appeal among the new generation of parents and children audience.For those who are about to reach 30 and have experienced the “second peak” of the rapid development of the domestic film market, they will also put forward higher requirements and standards for parent-child films.(The first titanium media APP, author | Li Chengcheng)

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